Joint Report - case study 1: Impact of GMT on resource scarcity by Ulli Lorenz

“Possible impacts of global megatrends on resources scarcity (general concept from the perspective of northern Europe)”This model is the basis for the case study 1 of the report: "Impact assessment of global megatrends - Two case studies connecting global megatrends to regional topics" by UllrIch Lorenz and Hördr V. Haraldsson The case study 1 examines the general mechanism of resource scarcity. The global megatrends – as described in the State of environment report 2010 – are included in the model as we...

Mini World by Kai Neumann

altes Modell aus dem UBA-Modell-Ordner (als .cons importiert) - keine Erinnerung, wofür das gedacht war - es ist aber gut

The price of sustainability by Kai Neumann

Being tired of the complaints that renewable energy is expensive, that we cannot afford the conservation of natural habitats, that not all people can purchase organic products, that our industry looses jobs, our citizens cannot bear the burden of the costs of sustainable solutions, and so forth I started this model. As it turned out it is not as easy as I thought. My original assumption was that any additional expenses should - with a high domestic value creation compared to the import of fossil fuels - ...

Systemic view on terror threats after Paris by Kai Neumann

Just the start of a small model on the basic interconnections behind the growing threat of terror. You may use the collaborative link to edit the model or provide a complete new model.

General model on transition, tipping points and crossing the chasm by Kai Neumann

Just a small general model on tipping points (using the Bass function that can be found e.g. in Sterman's 'Business Dynamics'). The model distinguishes between first movers, early adopters and the tipping point (Malcolm Gladwell) of an adaption by the majority of potential adopters. Getting from early adopters to the majority can be named 'crossing the chasm' (by G.A. Moore). The model can be used for both, explorative qualitative modeling of factors the hinder and foster the tipping point, or a continua...

GDP growth with shrinking population by Kai Neumann

This model was developed as a reaction to a science meeting where the participants univocally doubted the potential for GDP growth in Germany with the prospect of a shrinking population. While I might criticize the concept of a GDP and see a lot of reasons for a shrinking economy I doubt that a shrinking population inevitably has to lead to a shrinking GDP. But see my arguments in the model and tell us what you would change or even better make the changes directly in the model via the collaborative link.

Germany‘s Jamaica Coalition a historic chance by Kai Neumann

As disappointed I as I was about the lates election‘s results I nevertheless see a historic opportunity for real political progress. A lot major steps are prevented (for sometimes a very good reason) by the power sharing between national Bundestag and federal Bundesrat with a reigning CDU that is by definition conservative trying to change as little as possible. Now there is little alternative to bargaining a change other than they could decide to change nothing but to get ministries or than to repeat th...

df 017 Kollaps (Diamond) by Dirk Fabricius

Das— keineswegs fertige - Modell sucht Diamonds (2005), Kollaps. Frankfurt/M: Fischer) Untersuchung zum Kollaps von Gesellschaften umzusetzen. Zentral ist der "unbeabsichtigte ökologische Selbstmord" (S. 18). Fünf Faktoren spielen eine Rolle, von denen vier - Umweltschäden, Klimaveränderungen, feindliche Nachbarn, unfreundliche Handelspartner — nicht in allen Fällen vorliegen, immer jedoch die Reaktion der Gesellschaft auf ihre Umweltprobleme (25).  Daher ist „Umweltprobleme“ die zentrale Variable. Diese...

General Trend Model by Kai Neumann

Mini Model on Green Investments by Kai Neumann

a very small model showing the major levers as they turned out in larger models on know-why.net