Open Source Horizon Scanning Trend Forecast Foresight Model (1) von Kai Neumann

This model should help to collect news from all over the world and put them into cause and effect relation to each other, and to the factors that define the economy, the societies, the environment, and everyone. Those factors we call targets, colored yellow. Whenever some interesting news pops up we may add further target factors to connect them with the central target of our all well being. The model should remain as general as possible. A small manual is provided with the Menu ... Presenter. News could...

General model on transition, tipping points and crossing the chasm von Kai Neumann

Just a small general model on tipping points (using the Bass function that can be found e.g. in Sterman's 'Business Dynamics'). The model distinguishes between first movers, early adopters and the tipping point (Malcolm Gladwell) of an adaption by the majority of potential adopters. Getting from early adopters to the majority can be named 'crossing the chasm' (by G.A. Moore). The model can be used for both, explorative qualitative modeling of factors the hinder and foster the tipping point, or a continua...

Reflexion on thorium reactors von Kai Neumann

this is just a first scetch of a cause and effect model ... if you look at the matrix of the factor thorium reactor you will recognize that this model is dominated by balancing feedback loops (...) you may contact me (kai@ilsa.de) to get a copy of the model or even to collaboratively model it with me and others in any way: many insights and happy modeling Kai

Tutorial: Quantitative Demo Model von Kai Neumann

This is the quantitative model from the tutorial (Menu ... Show Help ... "?" ... Quantitative Model)