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Schnellansicht des Modells (öffne Gesamtmodell mit iMODELER):

present thumbnailKai Neumann (#1) hat eine Beschreibung des Modells im iMODELER Presenter erstellt.

Beschreibung

just trying to grasp the situation - please join the modeling!


While I started trying to show the high risks of catastrophe I now see also opportunities. See some first insights in the presenter (Menu ... Presenter)

By the way: I predicted the development of the US elections, unfortunately :  https://www.know-why.net/model/C-5GDe-XN0rMggChUtMLm8Q 

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Ihre Meinung:

Kommentare (8)

Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

Some experts expect that Trump will foster the economy by his investment programs though it remains unclear how he gets this financed. http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/us-wahl-2016/ifo-institut-donald-trump-wird-wirtsc...
Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

When Obama started and announced he would start an initiative to foster green tech I was afraid that this would end Germany's lead in mechanical engineering. Instead, his politics remained quite conservative hopefully not because of him but of the political environment and circumstances (...). But isn't it different now? Wasn't Bernie Sanders just too old to win against Hillary Clinton. And isn't the weakening of the Republicans and the prospect of too radically right politics a true chance for also a major part of the non-voters to reflect on what they actually want and to fight for a change. After all it is about fairness - not total equality and socialism. People may prosper but not at the costs of others which includes the environment. And the inequality that is already there needs to be corrected through taxation on wealth and resource consumption. Less poor people means more social peace and a higher variety for more potentials. We just need charismatic people to lead this change. This is featured by other models on know-why.net. The model here argues that the situation just needs to become extreme enough in order to change something. Someone has added to the model the prospect of Trump resigning early and his vice president stepping in. The model would argue that this would mean a lower chance for a change.

p.labine@y*

Although Senator Sanders would be very suitable for Europe, Socialists are not likely to win in the United States.

Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

Dear Jürgen
You emphasised the challenge of any individual to become active. I totally agree that this will be crucial. Of course, one thing is to model ;-) the interconnections in order to see the levers for one's action. Another argument for modeling would be to try to convince others to take action. But here becomes Susanne's model relevant: https://www.know-why.net/model/CZgAPKnbErrtHCedMTRLnvA Others will protect their mental model and shy away from action. And to just show models would in most cases mean "too much development without integration". Thus we need to model collaboratively. Away from modeling I think our and especially US citizen's daily choices need to be that for a sustainable future without falling back into the fossile era. The economy would follow our demand and the Zeitgeist would change to a kind of left movement. This could be reinforcing. But it could also be balancing as would be a moderate Trump. And it could be too much development for those who couldn't become so easily sustainable.
Jürgen T. Sturany

Jürgen T. Sturany

Danke Kai für dieses tolle Model!
Es macht deutlich wie wichtig systemisches Denken ist und so die CHANCEM im SCHLECHTEN gesehen / gefunden werden können. Eines ist und bleibt klar: Jammern nützt gar nichts!
Was allerdings bleibt, ist die wirklich große Hürde für jeden einzelnen für uns: WAS TU ICH um dieses Potential wirksam werden zu lassen?
LG aus Wien
Jürgen
Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

SPIEGEL adds monetary aspects and an incrase of trade deficit to the discussion:
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/donald-trump-und-die-wirtschaft-darum-wird-sein-plan-schei...
Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann antwortet p.labine@y*

Agreed, and yet the model suggests that there is a chance that he is so bad that the silent middle of our societies becomes active and left and green becomes en vogue again. However, there is climate change, the environment, the society, international trade, and geopolitical balance at stake.

p.labine@y*

Trump will be the most unethical and most immoral President ever elected. In my opinion and Politico's opinion, he is a pathological liar.

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