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present thumbnailKai Neumann (#1) has provided a description of the model with the iMODELER Presenter.


IMHO there is a dark side of the force opposed to the (light side of the) force. It is right vs. left, liberalism vs. communitarism, those who say we need to support the strong in order to enable them to give to the weaker, and those who say we need to support everybody in order to get a wealthier and happier society. While the US republicans definitely fit the cliche of the dark side of the force - I do not fall for the talk of a middle class and for their call for less government intervention for more rights for the people - the democrats not always withstand to support the special interests of some powerful people.

So, from that perspective Donald Trump is good for us, the people. The model shows why. To understand the assumptions made with the model we have to think of our society as being in parts interested in pursuing their interests against the well being of the others, in parts not interested in politics, and a part interested in the welfare of everybody. The first part can use some simple rhetoric to convince simple minded (they are worth as much as anybody else) persons from being better persons than others. The third part as it seems cannot simply tell that the mass of people would be better off if they would took more from the very rich. Instead they have to address climate change, transition to sustainability and other complex processes. 

In the US with only two relevant parties we see the first part competing with the last part. The large part in the middle needs to be convinced by both sides by moderate tones. As the US first selects its two opponents allegedly by the republicans and the democrats separately it becomes possible that a majority of republicans with the help from more simple minded people selects an extreme candidate with his simple rhetoric. Somehow this reminds me of one further president ;-). However, if this candidate is simple minded enough it becomes likely that in the final elections not only the middle part of the society but also some reasonable persons from the first part cannot vote for that guy so that it becomes more likely that the candidate from the third part of society, a democrat, is voted.

Well, but have a look at the model and its analysis of the Insight Matrix.


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Comments (2)

Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

So I was right :-(
Now, I have started another model on the consequence of the elections. It seems to be possible that a radical Trump would be better than a moderate Trump:
Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

Interesting, that this model was predicting the development of the US elections that early. One thing I had to add, though: The chance of a protest signal against the political establishment is huge therefore many people will vote for Trump while others might think that this guy won't be elected anyway so they do not need to vote. Especially when the polls show that the democratic candidate is leading.
This happened with the vote for Brexit. Too many people stayed home.
There is an interesting model from Susanne that shows why some people won't change their mind:

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