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Collecting and exploring different arguments and ideas around the so called Corona crisis in a qualitative cause and effect model that after weighting the interconnections allows for analyses through Insight Matrices and loop analysis.

Time horizon

Short term: 1 month
Medium term: 3 months
Long term: beyond 1 year


For more please look at the presenter, explore the model via iMODELER as a freeware or have a look at the corresponding paper: (available in German as well)

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Comments (6)



Long-Haulers Are Redefining COVID-19
Without understanding the lingering illness that some patients experience, we can’t understand the pandemic.
Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

Now we have added a third model ( to the paper exploring the possible world after corona. It suggests the economy will not recover but nevertheless societies could gain something from it.
Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

Again, we have widened the scope of the model that now features economical aspects to discuss the exit strategy for the current crisis mode. Meanwhile we are also updating the corresponding paper:
It is amazing how well the qualitative analysis makes sense :-)
Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

I have added the latest aspects like severe infections of younger people as well as the chance that immunity won*t last. Now the Insight Matrix suggests that our current strategy to slow down infections is correct in order to learn about the virus and that the shift to isolate just the high risk persons should come medium term. replies Kai Neumann

Vielen Dank! Hier ein paar Betrachtungen zu bereits jetzt absehbaren längfristigen Folgen Der Schwarze Schwan ist gelandet
Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

While the quantitative model ( shows that it is unlikely that the social distancing could be eased before we get a vaccine / cure this qualitative model helps to discuss how likely it is that we can maintain social distancing and what the alternative would be. My first interpretation from it would be that unless we quickly get this cure society and the economy/politics will run into chaos and thus consider to isolate just the weak persons at any cost while the rest will run through the infection.

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