Really? I’d assume that the second part of your comment is crucial - the question whether investors have faith in certain developments. And there it is the question whether they are up to invest in save regions while instability grows in other regions causing shortages and thus high prices or whether they decline because their region is unstable. However, the latest developments of oil prices are for geopolitical reasons that this model features:
https://www.know-why.net/model/Ab5Hequt9iuGYbE_mEOe7qw with countries not willing to reduce supply to keep their margin costs, to prevent the US from exploring shale gas and to keep the prices low to put pressure on Putin - not to speak of the tribal rivalries in the middle east.
The main driver of oil prices is the cost of capital for new investments and, then, the creditors perception of situation in Middle East. This is why prices fall in 2014: new oil reservs were discovered in Venezuela, Canada and Brazil.