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Schnellansicht des Modells (öffne Gesamtmodell mit iMODELER):

present thumbnailKai Neumann (#1) hat eine Beschreibung des Modells im iMODELER Presenter erstellt.

Beschreibung

The motivation for the model: A number of question arose from several threads on LinkedIn, within projects for the Federal Environmental Agency and from my discussions on a banking congress. The question always was whether rich people need the poor people, whether poor people should get more with benefit for the rich people, whether more sustainability makes everything more expensive or whether environmental costs and the rising costs of resources harm the economy at all. As my mental models on these questions stem from a number of different models I thought it would be time to put them to test in a new, qualitative and maybe even quantitative model. The result is a yet simple model looking at two kind of people in our country: those who pay interests and those who accumulate money and receive interests. "our" refers to those who have money as this model is a reaction to the question whether rich people need poor people. Within the presenter I show the development of the model that started with some simple thought experiments. At the end you will see the comprehensive model with its 31 factors and 76 connections that form 563 feedback loops and offer a lot insights - even more than I will present here. The main conclusions from the model: If there weren't the many poorer people and new enterprises and developing regions in the world no one would need credits, no one would be richer than others or that wealthy (many things are affordable only because of low wages), the state wouldn't have to raise so high taxes and pay interests to the rich, and our felt wealth is only relative to those who have less. The taxes however are for the benefit of the rich people. More even of benefit are the state's debts for the rich people as they need ways to increase their money through interests. Creative financial products are good for the rich, but in the long run they might lead to social catastrophes. Lower wages and high productivity are also good for the rich people as are even the increase of resource prices as long as we stay productive enough to supply the technology to go after the remaining resources. Looking at this model it seems as if the neoliberalism continues to work well for the rich people. Although the model doesn't include the middle class they might be crucial. As long as due to increased overall productivity a crucial mass of people seems to have more material wealth or the chance to get to it they won't change the system e.g. by voting for alternative parties. But if we look for example at Europe as a whole we can already see the potential for social tensions due to the rise of productivity, social inequality, and the shift to other markets. Where was my mental model wrong? Well, environmental boundaries and the increase of resource prices probably have less impact on the economy than I expected. The impact is rather longterm resulting in less wealth for the poor and an irreparably decrease of so called environmental service. The increases of costs of impacts on health and the environment however bear themselves economic opportunities. In the presenter I have collected the progress of the model. System boundaries: - no middle class - ... Yet (possible) to do: quantifiy and simulate stocks for wealth Contact e.g. for comments and improvements: Kai Neumann, info@ilsa.de

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Kommentare (7)

Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

www.fes-2017plus.de features an ongoing project by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung that also describes the negative effects from inequality and the savings from the rich people that do not fuel the economy and its jobs.
Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

Here's an article (in German) on Germany's record exports and their implications: https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article157969742/Deutschlands-gefaehrlicher-Hoehenflug-im-Welthandel....
Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

here is an article arguing like Gladwell in Outliers that to be rich is not just a matter of capability and performance. It points to a meritocracy that manifests inequality: http://m.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/arm-und-reich/erfolg-durch-zufall-der-leistungsmythos-14333152.a...
Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann

In a recent report from Allianz it says that the wealth of the population has increased so that they could easily (three times) pay for all the government's debts in the world. The problem though remains the discrepancy. What is not shown in this model is that banks are allowed to create money out of nothing that even further increases the wealth of the rich while the poor have to pay interests for their own loans and for the state's as well. If one argues that the state's debts are carried more by the rich who pay more taxes it needs to be acknowledged that it is not paying taxes but also lacking money of public schools, health care etc..

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