Climate Change - a comprehensive and collaborative model on the arguments

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Schnellansicht des Modells (öffne Gesamtmodell mit iMODELER):

Beschreibung

This model was developed with the help from the model "Globale Erderwärmung" by MaggerTheGreat from KNOW-WHY.NET.

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Climateflation

cracks in buildings

warming of grounds in cities

cyanobacteria / microbes that capture carbon

CFCs in the atmosphere

ongoing CFC emissions

groundwater

lack of rainfall in some regions

Melting of antarctic ice

Melting of antarctic shelf

Antarctic bottom water contraction induced ocean currents reduced

iron salt aerosol method

cleared rainforests

depletion of methane in the atmosphere

Methane in the atmosphere

loss of hydrogen from spills

Green hydrogen

Fluctuations in supply of renewable energy

Lack of drinkable water

Loss of biodiversity

Browning of rivers/lakes/ponds

Warming of lakes and rivers

health

risk of infections

Photovoltaics

Hydropower

Methane emissions from hydropower

cooling from tropical forests

nitrogen mineralization

plagues from insects

wind speeds rise

Melting glacier water as CO2 sink

use of artificial fertilizers

blue carbon (vegetated coastal ecosystems)

Orbital sun-far constellations

Orbital sun-near constellations

Cooling of oceans

Releasing CO2 in the atmosphaere

Cleaner air in China - less QRA

Warming of land

Wind farms, wind energy

Methan emissions from micro plastics

threat for winter wheat (lack of frost)

productive agriculture

no groundwater replenishment from melting snow

Warm winters in Germany (and similar regions)

disadvantages for later life of infants

Methane from floodplain trees in the amazon

CO2 absorption from oceans (bacteria)

geo engineering

less coffee, cocoa etc.

overshot of tipping points e.g. from heavy monsums in sahel zone

extreme heat

need for electricity to cool buildings

Slow down of US economy

Methan emissions out of ocean ground

depletion of non-renewable groundwater

Turbulances effect flights

Psychologic consequences

Increase of sea life

areas for agriculture

human settlements with infrastructure

forests with wood

wild fires

Viewer ski areas, shorter seasons

historically: oxidation of organic materials in oceans

Stock of foodstuff (phosphate etc.)

Cement carbonation

Carbon capture technologies

cloud creation over oceans

Desertification e.g. of Spain, Portugal, Ethiopia ...

Power shortages

Heavier rains and floodings and storms

Healing of ozone layer

Change of behavior and attitude

Air traffic

increased degradation of soils through microbes

die off of bees (less protein in pollen)

unhappy Kai with not fish to see in his Baltic Sea

Dead zones without oxygen in the oceans

leaks from fracking

refugees from climate change consequenes

Renewable energy

Slow down of China's economy

Increase of India's economy

Economic growth

Increased wealth in the world

Increase of world population

Darkening of arctic ice

Darkening of ice from glaciers

higher fuel costs for air traffic

Change of jet streams

Depletion of (arctic) ozone layer

fertilizer effect of floating icebergs

Droughts

Increase of aerosols in the air in parts of the world

Using compost on agricultural grounds

Measure to protect from increased sea level

Less money

Fewer productive people in the world

Cloud creation in the south pacific

Growth of algae

less fish to eat

less income from tourism

Loss of marine wildlife, coral bleaching

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere

Acidification of the Oceans

Changes in the Atlantic currents (AMOC)

Warming of oceans

precipitation

Improved insulation

Alternative solutions to heat our homes

Cooling

Cooking with wood

Heating with fossil energy

City of the future

Mobility with fossile energy

Eruption of volcanoes

More El Nino Cases

Increase of meat and milk consumption

Increased growth of plants

Saltification of groundwater and soil

Increase of sea level

Depletion of glaciers

Depletion of arctic ice

Areas of ice and snow

Climate Change (global warming)

Power generation

Methane emissions

Land consumption

Crises, wars

Carbon dioxide emissions

Extreme weather in the world

Nitrogen emissions

Defrosting/ thawing permafrost soils

Sunshine

Radiation back to orbit

Activity of sun

Clouds and particles

Ihre Meinung:

Kommentare (65)

Kai Neumann

Costs from climate change are going to be six times higher then what it would take to tackle it: https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/klimawandel-so-teuer-wird-es/

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Only an indirect aspect but China's coastal cities are sinking due to the weight of buildings, vibrations from traffic and consumption of ground water - thus a third of them is going sink below sea level quite soon: https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/warum-chinas-grossstaedte-absinken/

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Kai Neumann

Melting glaciers could release huge amounts of methane: https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/auch-tauende-berggletscher-sind-methanschleudern/

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Kai Neumann

https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/blick-aufs-klima-der-zwei-grad-welt/ ... latest, rather frustrating developments

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Kai Neumann

https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/kippt-der-nordatlantikstrom-frueher/ ... Atlantic current might falter earlier than expected

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Kai Neumann

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5110?wt_mc=nl.red.ct.ct-club.2023-07-18.link.link ... impressive NASA simulation of CO2 concentration on the north and south of our vulnerable planet

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Kai Neumann

Another frightening news: https://www.scinexx.de/service/dossier_print_all.php?dossierID=270553

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Ulli Lorenz

Very helpful... many ambiguities inside and the large loops... Well done!

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Kai Neumann

just added increased risk of infections and new deseases: https://www.scinexx.de/news/medizin/klimawandel-verstaerkt-infektionsgefahr/

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Kai Neumann

reinforcing feedback loop for tipping points: the permafrost soils https://www.scinexx.de/dossier/zeitbombe-permafrost/

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Kai Neumann

The effects of a depleted ozone layer: https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/ozonloch-beeinflusst-unser-wetter/

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Kai Neumann

Why there was no break and why we looked for an explanation driven by sceptics:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/global-warming-pause-climate-change-science-early-2000s

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Kai Neumann

Europe’s heater may collapse soon: https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/nordatlantikstrom-nah-am-kollaps/

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Kai Neumann

I am starting to add the information directly to the factors and connections within the model. However, here is some latest news on the underestimated effects of forests: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210208185117.htm

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Kai Neumann

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/02/sea-level-rise-could-be-worse-than-feared-warn-r... so it could come worse

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Kai Neumann

https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/lachgas-starker-anstieg-der-emissionen/ on NO2 emissions from agriculture

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Kai Neumann

Just integrated this great reference: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/23/magazine/climate-migration.html?smid=tw-share

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Kai Neumann

15 tipping points with 9 reached: https://utopia.de/zusammenbruch-zivilisation-klimakrise-prognose-klimawandel-193842/?utm_source=Inte...

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Kai Neumann

World wide wind speeds rise: https://www.scinexx.de/news/energie/wind-frischt-weltweit-auf/

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Kai Neumann

https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/groenland-eisplatten-mit-fatalen-folgen/ Eisplatten Grönlands ....

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Kai Neumann

https://www.sciencemediacenter.de/alle-angebote/rapid-reaction/details/news/klimawandel-wer-hilft-de... coole Sammlung zur Transformation

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Kai Neumann

https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/klimawandel-kosten-treffen-alle/

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Kai Neumann

London School of Economics. "Economic models significantly underestimate climate change risks." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 3 June 2018. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180603193616.htm>.

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Kai Neumann

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20190502-how-global-warming-has-made-the-rich-richer ... so we will watch them starve just to pick up their resources?

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Kai Neumann

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-11-28/blue-carbon-an-effective-climate-mitigation-and-drawdo... probably it makes a difference whether we protect at restore these kind of systems or create unstable new systems, doesn't it?

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Kai Neumann antwortet Kai Neumann

http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-wissen-aktuell-23319-2018-11-02.html

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Kai Neumann

Disturbances in jet streams cause more extreme weather: https://enwicklungspolitik.blogspot.com/2018/11/mehr-extremwetter-durch-die-storung.html (German language)

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Kai Neumann

http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-wissen-aktuell-23283-2018-10-23.html New hints on a change of ocean streams

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Kai Neumann

new evidence on possible tipping points: http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-wissen-aktuell-23014-2018-08-07.html

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Kai Neumann

Some latest news and backgrounds on the current records this summer breaks on the northern hemisphere: http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-dossier-877-1.html

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Kai Neumann

Rogue emissions of ozone depleting chemicals: http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/cfc11-ozone-rise-1.4665806

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Kai Neumann

http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-wissen-aktuell-22625-2018-04-12.html .... AMOC is weakening

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Kai Neumann

http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-wissen-aktuell-22580-2018-03-29.html ... faster than expected the melting

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Kai Neumann

our faith in big solutions:
http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-wissen-aktuell-22328-2018-01-23.html

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Kai Neumann

2017 summary for the united states: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609642/the-year-climate-change-began-to-spin-out-of-control/?utm_...

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Kai Neumann

some interesting forecast for Germany: http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-wissen-aktuell-22185-2017-12-07.html

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Kai Neumann

here I would really like to take a closer look, possibly with a new model: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609629/global-warming-may-harm-children-for-life/?utm_source=MIT+...
It says that extreme heat causes lower income later. Maybe correlation and causation is confused?

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Kai Neumann

Natural source from floodplain trees in the amazon for methane with no implication other that we understand more: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/12/171205142636.htm

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Kai Neumann

Oceans bacteria might play a crucial role: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171127124706.htm

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Kai Neumann

5% chance only:
http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-wissen-aktuell-21713-2017-08-01.html

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Kai Neumann

here is an interesting report according to which there was no pausing of a warming of the oceans: http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-wissen-aktuell-21016-2017-01-05.html

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Kai Neumann

Here is a nice source. To be fair one should follow the discussions beneath each point:
https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php

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Kai Neumann

I am not sure where to put this rather historically effect of possible oxidation of organic materials from oceans that is said to had caused an reinforcing spike in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/news-events/historic-shrinking-antarctic-ice-sheet-linked-co2-spike
It this a potential effect today, as well?

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Kai Neumann

while we always hear that it is yet undecided how the weather will finally change in Europe there are now first insights that it will be heavier rains with floodings because of the temperature increase of the Mediterranean: http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-wissen-aktuell-20601-2016-09-12.html

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Kai Neumann

a new study on how the increased growth of plants compensates for a part of the extra CO2 emissions, at least short term: http://www.wissenschaft.de/leben-umwelt/umwelt/-/journal_content/56/12054/11257948

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graalbeutzer

signs of a decoupling: http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-04-14/can-we-reduce-co2-emissions-and-grow-the-global-economy

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Kai Neumann

added refugees, e.g. from islands: http://www.wissenschaft.de/erde-weltall/klima-wetter/-/journal_content/56/12054/11054355/Kleinen-Ins...

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Kai Neumann

News from the 1st of April - hopefully a joke: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v531/n7596/full/nature17145.html

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Kai Neumann

http://www.wissenschaft.de/erde-weltall/klima-wetter/-/journal_content/56/12054/10716164/Rekordrate-.... . says we currently face a record rate of emissions, while https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601055/global-carbon-dioxide-emissions-have-now-been-flat-for-two.... says they have been flat for two years.

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MaggerTheGreat

http://www.wetteronline.de/klimawandel/2015-12-02-so
A predicted minimum in sunspot number can result in global cooling. Of course that does not mean that i support global warming experiments to compensate this effect!

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Kai Neumann antwortet Kai Neumann

El Nino has an effect connected to climate change http://www.scinexx.de/newsletter-wissen-aktuell-19502-2015-11-09.html

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Kai Neumann

I have now included the influence of an increase of aerosols: http://www.wissenschaft.de/erde-weltall/klima-wetter/-/journal_content/56/12054/8706048/Die-Welt-wir...

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Kai Neumann

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/8/e1500589 new study on the potentials of sea level rise

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Kai Neumann

NASA says oceans will rise way more: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/08/150827-NASA-climate-oceans-seas-greenland/?utm_source=Twi...

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Kai Neumann

http://www.wissenschaft.de/erde-weltall/klima-wetter/-/journal_content/56/12054/7122584 another effect on the Atlantic's currents

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Kai Neumann

Question: is there an increase of evaporation and cloud development?

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Kai Neumann

How about using categories and colors, e.g. for reasons, measures, negative effects, (balancing) side effects ... or something like that?

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MaggerTheGreat

I think precipitation was missing in this model. I think it will also have connections to other factors of the model.

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Kai Neumann antwortet Kai Neumann

Another hint that the gulf system is connected to the north atlantic system:
http://www.wissenschaft.de/erde-weltall/klima-wetter/-/journal_content/56/12054/6131189

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Kai Neumann

Yepp, I confused something though there seems to be a connection. However, that's why I'd like to model collaboratively with people who know more :-)

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MaggerTheGreat

Hi Kai, that is an impact on the gulf stream for example, but also on El Nino? Do you have a proof?

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Kai Neumann antwortet MaggerTheGreat

less heavier salty water sinking down when it gets cooler driving the atlantic streams because of the additional fresh water?

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Climate Change - a comprehensive and collaborative model on the arguments

Beschreibung

Ihre Meinung:

Kommentare (65)

Kai Neumann antwortet Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann antwortet Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann antwortet Kai Neumann

Kai Neumann antwortet MaggerTheGreat

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